Choices and Magical Thinking

Humans are the only species in the Animal Kingdom that can make logical decisions. We were given the ultimate talisman to rule the Kingdom at the top of the food chain. We have thrived and advanced for a very, very long time. So why do we continue to make the decisions we do, hoping that magical thinking, somehow, will result in a different outcome? 

The answer, to me, seems clear: we can also make no decision and we can make a bad decision. Take this observation from an editorial board member at The New York Times:

"We know a lot more [about coronavirus] now...we know that temperature checks won’t prevent outbreaks (at least one-third of people who transmit the virus have no symptoms at all), but that routine surveillance testing can catch outbreaks before they become catastrophes. 

"We don’t know how safe schools are, or how safe they might be made. But we do know that bars and restaurants are hubs of viral transmission.

"And yet, as we enter the third — and potentially worst — coronavirus surge, pandemic fatigue and magical thinking have us acting like all of this is brand-new. Schools are closing while restaurants remain open. State and local leaders are dithering on mask mandates. 

"Too few communities have effective programs in place for contact tracing, quarantine and isolation."

However bad it looks right now, this pandemic won't last forever; they never have. Our goal as a nation should be to protect as many people as possible in the tough months ahead. Magical thinking will not get us through this. Making good choices will help.

Stay-at-Home Is a Good Thing

Why is believing in "stay-at-home" orders difficult to believe in the face of a severe lack of testing to determine the true breadth of coronavirus? From The New York Times:

• "As President Trump pushes to reopen the economy, most of the country is not conducting nearly enough testing to track the path and penetration of the coronavirus in a way that would allow Americans to safely return to work, public health officials and political leaders say."

The USA has a population of about 330 million. According to the Johns Hopkins real-time model, so far we have only given 3.3 million tests. That is 1% of the population.

One percent is less than a rounding error in any statistical model, yet we want to make national policy based on it?

I trust scientists, science, and public health officials. I do not trust politicians whose focus in on putting money in the hands of businessmen and businessmen who pander to politicians. I will obey the stay-at-home order in my state until I can be relatively sure that my own risk is minimized. That might even be longer than the current order ends on April 30.

I know many are in very different conditions than I am, living alone, retired with a pension and Social Security, a debt load that, while heavy, is manageable. I also know there are pressures on others that I do not have, and I equally sure that the risk of severe illness and death is far greater for my age-group. Making a small sacrifice is not a big deal for me.